Electric Vehicles
The electric vehicle numbers for the scenario obtained as follows
Sustainable Transition 2030 are collected from the TSO estimations.
EUCO 2030 is based figures provided by DG Energy
All of the other scenarios are based on the projections from the IEA EV-Outlook 2016.
The following table maps the IEA EV outlook to the 2030 and 2040 scenarios.
| Scenario | Growth in EV | IEA EV-Outlook numbers |
|---|---|---|
| Sustainable Transition (2040) | Moderate | 2040 Low |
| Global Climate Action (2040) | High | 2040 Mod |
| Distributed Generation (2030 & 2040) | Very High | Bottom 2030 and 2040 Highup |
Table 17: Electric vehicle scenario alignment with IEA EV-Outlook
For Sustainable Transition 2040 the EV forecast is based on the reported numbers for 2030 and a projection of the growth after 2030 from IEA-Low.
For Distributed Generation (2030 / 2040) and Global Climate Action 2040 the values are set by IEA numbers, given that the TSO reported EV market share from Sustainable Transition 2030 is not higher than this.
| In thousands of EVs | Sustainable Transition | Distributed Generation | Global Climate Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | 2040 | 2030 | |
| Albania | 24.9 | 57.4 | 29.1 |
| Austria | 537.1 | 1009.1 | 629.5 |
| Belgium | 390.9 | 900.8 | 456.9 |
| Bosnia | 49.8 | 114.8 | 58.2 |
| Bulgaria | 192.0 | 442.4 | 232.8 |
| Croatia | 20.0 | 46.1 | 145.9 |
| Czech Republic | 161.3 | 371.7 | 611.2 |
| Denmark | 86.6 | 131.5 | 198.3 |
| Denmark | 129.9 | 197.3 | 297.5 |
| Estonia | 40.0 | 92.2 | 46.7 |
| Finland | 250.0 | 576.1 | 269.4 |
| France | 3694.0 | 6146.8 | 6349.1 |
| FYR of Macedonia | 21.8 | 50.2 | 70.4 |
| GB Northern Ireland | 92.6 | 163.4 | 172.8 |
| Germany | 2640.0 | 5647.6 | 5400.0 |
| Great Britain | 4706.1 | 8309.9 | 4759.3 |
| Greece | 423.3 | 975.4 | 494.7 |
| Hungary | 175.0 | 403.3 | 246.0 |
| Ireland | 168.0 | 296.6 | 313.6 |
| Italy | 470.7 | 1180.6 | 686.7 |
| Italy | 811.3 | 2034.9 | 1183.7 |
| Italy | 2287.3 | 5737.0 | 3337.2 |
| Italy | 355.8 | 892.3 | 519.1 |
| Italy | 95.6 | 239.9 | 139.5 |
| Italy | 259.0 | 649.6 | 377.8 |
| Latvia | 24.0 | 55.3 | 93.1 |
| Lithuania | 34.0 | 78.3 | 117.8 |
| Luxembourg | 46.0 | 98.4 | 49.7 |
| Norway | 129.0 | 204.7 | 160.8 |
| Norway | 75.0 | 119.0 | 93.5 |
| Norway | 660.0 | 1047.4 | 822.6 |
| Poland | 1900.0 | 4378.3 | 0.0 |
| Portugal | 84.5 | 144.1 | 694.8 |
| Romania | 57.0 | 131.3 | 552.9 |
| Serbia | 110.0 | 253.5 | 154.6 |
| Slovak Republic | 152.4 | 351.2 | 238.9 |
| Slovenia | 149.3 | 344.1 | 209.9 |
| Spain | 1000.0 | 1325.0 | 2425.0 |
| Sweden | 16.7 | 28.5 | 24.8 |
| Sweden | 34.0 | 58.1 | 50.6 |
| Sweden | 323.2 | 552.1 | 481.5 |
| Sweden | 106.8 | 182.5 | 159.2 |
| Switzerland | 814.6 | 1877.1 | 1145.2 |
| The Netherlands | 736.1 | 1383.0 | 1013.1 |
| Montenegro | 1204.8 | 2776.3 | 1408.0 |
Table 18: Number of electric vehicles (1000’s)