Supply

Electricity generation mix

Figure 8: Electricity net generation by source and scenario

Electricity installed capacity

Figure 9: Electricity installed generation capacity by source and scenario

The general trends that can be seen throughout the years are a reduction in nuclear (besides the EUCO 2030 scenario where there is a similar level as in the 2020 scenario), a reduction in coal which is less exaggerated in Distributed Generation, and an increase in wind and solar. The levels of Hydro + Pumped Storage and Biomass + other RES remain relatively constant throughout. Natural gas shows the most variation, with its use changing based on the assumptions of the scenario e.g. the need for balancing intermittent renewables and/ or gas prices. It should be noted that peak units should only be dispatched for adequacy reasons and therefore appear high in the merit order.

Gas supply potentials

Figure 10: Gas Supply - Indigenous production and maximum supply potentials by source

Conventional indigenous production within the EU is expected to decrease significantly over the next 20 years. Unconventional sources, such as shale gas, are not expected to materialise. The development of bio-methane and P2G help to mitigate this decline, especially in the Distributed Generation and Global Climate Action scenarios.

The maximum potential for extra-EU supply sources increases across the timeframe of the scenarios, with greater potential from LNG and Russia outweighing stagnation or decline of other sources. The potential for gas imports from Azerbaijan increase from 2019, adding to a diversified mix of routes.